SportSims.net may have forecasted a different outcome for Super Bowl XLII, but the online sports simulation accurately predicted the three key factors for the Giants’ upset.
Steve Olson, SportSims.net President, said, “The Giants executed the key factors that we discovered in the game simulations and they were able to pull the upset.” The three factors that SportSims.net discovered in their 500,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLII are the same three factors that allowed the Giants to upset the highly-favored Patriots: sack quarterback Tom Brady at least three times, contain wide receiver Wes Welker, and have no turnovers.
In the actual Super Bowl game, the Giants’ defense successfully pressured Brady, sacking the Patriots’ quarterback a total of five times. Welker, even though he made 11 catches for 103 yards, never made any game-changing plays and never scored a touchdown for the Patriots. The Giants did suffer one turnover, but that error was neutralized by the Giants defense when they forced a three-and-out on the Patriots’ next series.
“When the Giants keyed on those factors, we saw a 32% shift in the winning percentages and the Giants then won 53% of the games,” according to SportSims.net president, Steve Olson. This was one of those 265,000 games.
Many of SportSims.net’s Super Bowl XLII predictions and final game statistics were accurate when looking at the results from the game Sunday night.
“While no prediction can be 100% dead on, the outcome of the representative simulated Patriots-Giants game mirrored the actual stats,” said David Holt, who developed the software program used by SportSims.net.
Here are some of SportSims.net’s predictions and actual Super Bowl XLII stats:
• SportSims.net accurately predicted that the Giants would score first.
• SportSims.net correctly predicted that the Giants would score on their first possession.
• SportSims.net precisely calculated that the Giants first score would be a field goal.
• SportSims.net forecasted the score at the end of the first quarter would be 7-3, Patriots. In the actual game, the Patriots scored a touchdown in the first play of the second quarter to make the score 7-3.
• SportSims.net predicted that the Patriots first scoring drive would take 5:00 minutes; the Patriots actually held the ball 5:04 minutes.
• SportSims.net predicted that the Patriots would have 68 plays in the game; they actually had 69.
• SportSims.net accurately predicted the number of passing yards by each quarterback: Manning – 264 yards (255 yards actual) and Brady – 277 yards (266 yards actual)
• SportSims.net forecasted the number of rushes by the Giants’ running backs: Bradshaw – 9 carries (actual 9 carries) and Jacobs – 16 carries (actual 14 carries).
• SportSims.net predicted the performance of Giants’ wide receiver Toomer: 5 catches for 75 yards and 15 yards per catch (actual 6 catches for 84 yards and 14 yards per catch).
The simulation engine used for SportSims.net’s Super Bowl prediction is also used in its online football game.
SportSims.net is a unique sports simulation game where subscribers have total control of their own professional football franchise and compete against other people online to win the SimBowlTM championship. Each 28-day season consists of a full off-season with interactive trading and team management, a live SimDraft TM and Training Camp, followed by a 16-game schedule with customizable GamePlanning, playoffs and player retirements.
|
