Defiance, OH — With a record of 12-4 in past Super Bowl games, SportSims.net simulated Super Bowl XXXVIII 20,000 times to predict this year’s winner.
"It's the closest Super Bowl I've ever seen," said David Holt of SportSims.net, commenting on how evenly these two teams are matched. He and his colleagues, Alan Stephenson and Steve Olson, have been running this program for 16 years.
The New England Patriots won 10,386 simulations, or 51.9% of the time. When the Patriots win, they outscore Carolina 26-16. The Carolina Panthers won 9,614 simulations, or 48.1% of the time. When Carolina wins, they outscore New England 25-19.
"This very well could be the first Super Bowl to go into overtime," David Holt said, adding, Carolina could pull the upset, but it will take it putting pressure on Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady to pull it off.
The representative game saw New England take an early 10-point lead, then hang on as Carolina knocks on their door when the final seconds count down. The final score was New England 23, Carolina 17. Brady was the MVP completing 17 of 26 passes, 181 yards, and three TDs. The leading receiver was Fauria catching 5 passes for 44 yards and one TD. Smith carried the ball 24 times for 115 yards. Bruschi had nine tackles. For Carolina, Davis ran for 119 yards on 18 carries. Smith had six catches for 109 yards and one TD. Delhomme was 13 of 29 passes, 170 yards, and one TD. Peppers had 2 sacks.
SportSims.net, an online sports simulation website, is a unique gaming environment that enables people to be the coach, general manager, and owner of their own simulated football team. Using the most accurate statistical engine developed, players interact with and compete against other team owners online by drafting players, developing a game plan, managing injuries and retirements, tracking player careers, and making trades.