Can the Philadelphia Eagles overcome the odds and upset the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX? SportSims.net entered the teams’ season statistics into their simulation engine and played the Super Bowl 20,000 times to predict the winner.
“This is a game where one player can make the difference…a healthy Terrell Owens,” said Dave Holt of SportSims.net. Holt, who has been running this simulation program for 17 years along with his colleagues Alan Stephenson and Steve Olson, ran the simulation 20,000 times. Their record predicting past Super Bowls: 13-4.
In 10,000 simulations without Owens, the New England Patriots win 70% of the time. When the Patriots win, they outscore the Eagles 31-17. In the 30% of games where Philadelphia wins, they outscore New England 28-21.
In the 10,000 simulations with Owens in the game, the Patriot’s are still favored to win but only 54% of the time. When New England wins, they outscore Philadelphia 30-24. In the 46% of games where the Eagles win (with Owens), they outscore the Patriots 28-21.
“With or without T.O., the key to an Eagles upset depends on their ability to get to Brady with the pass rush. The Eagles only allow nine yards per completion, which reflects their ability to pressure quarterbacks, which forces their opponent to throw shorter passes,” said Holt.
The representative game saw Philadelphia take an early seven-point lead in the first quarter only to be matched by New England by the second quarter. After the Eagles make a field goal, the Patriots score 14 unanswered points in the second quarter to make it 21-10 New England at the half. Philadelphia’s offense and defense surges in the third quarter and they score a touchdown while holding New England scoreless. A big play early in the fourth quarter increases the Patriots’ lead, 31-17. In the last few minutes of the game, the Eagles score a touchdown, but still come up short. The final score: New England – 31, Philadelphia – 24.
Tom Brady completed 17 of 29 passes for 232 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. David Patton had four catches for 104 yards and one touchdown. Corey Dillon, the game MVP, carried the ball 27 times for 127 yards and two touchdowns. Tedy Bruschi had seven tackles. For Philadelphia, Donovan McNabb completed 23 of 29 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Brian Westbrook ran for 42 yards on 10 carries and also had nine catches for 88 yards, one touchdown and one fumble. Jeremiah Trotter had 11 tackles.
Scoring by Quarter:
1st Quarter: Eagles - 7; Patriots - 7
2nd Quarter: Eagles - 3; Patriots - 14
3rd Quarter: Eagles - 7; Patriots - 3
4th Quarter: Eagles - 7; Patriots - 7
Final Score: Eagles - 24; Patriots - 31
SportSims.net, a unique new online sports game website, allows subscribers to compete against each other by accurately simulating football games using their own customized game plans and teams they have created by drafting, trading, managing and coaching players. SportSims.net’s Super Bowl prediction is for entertainment only and not for gambling purposes.