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2/3/2006


SportSims.net Predicts 2006 Super Bowl Winner

Will the Seattle Seahawks upset the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL? With a record of 14-4 in past Super Bowl predictions, SportSims.net simulated the Super Bowl 40,000 times to determine this year’s champion.

“This will be an ‘edge-of-your-seat’ Super Bowl,” said Dave Holt of SportSims.net. He continued, “We may see the first ever Super Bowl overtime. The results of the simulation show amazingly close scores.” The average points scored: Seattle-25.2, Pittsburgh-24.6. Holt, who has been running this simulation program for 18 years, along with his colleagues Alan Stephenson and Steve Olson, entered the players’ actual season statistics into their simulation engine rather than using subjective player ratings to get the most accurate results possible.

In 40,000 simulations, the Seattle Seahawks won 53% of the time. When the Seahawks won, they outscored the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24. In the 47% of the games where Pittsburgh won, they outscored Seattle 24-21. According to Holt, “Last year the Seahawks failed to give Alexander the ball and he lost the rushing title, if they fail to give him the ball against the Steelers, the Seahawks will lose the Super Bowl title.”

The representative game demonstrated how closely matched these two teams truly are; neither team ever acquires a lead greater than seven points. At half-time, the score is 17-10, Seattle. In the second half, the lead continues to seesaw back and forth. Ultimately the game turns on a late Pittsburgh interception and Seattle manages to win on a 27-yard Josh Brown field goal with only three seconds remaining. Shaun Alexander, on the strength of his 29 carries for 125 yards and two touchdowns, is named the Super Bowl MVP.

TEAM PLAYS YARDS TIME RESULT Visitor Score Home Score.

FIRST QUARTER

Seahawks 8 28 3:21 Fumble 0 0
Steelers 5 34 1:35 Interception (Hill) 0 0
Seahawks 3 10 1:42 Interception (Farrior) 0 0
Steelers 8 59 4:08 30-yd Reed FG 3 0
Seahawks 5 55 2:14 1st & 7, Pass, 7 yards, Hasselbeck to Engram, TD 3 7
Steelers 5 4 1:20 Punt, Gardocki – 41 yds.; Warrick – 8 yd. return 3 7
Seahawks 1 -3 :32 End of Quarter 3 7

SECOND QUARTER

Steelers 10 26 4:04 Punt, Gardocki – 40 yds.; Warrick – 4 yd. return 3 7
Seahawks 8 40 4:06 Run 5 yds – Alexander, TD 3 14
Steelers 7 28 2:16 Punt, Gardocki – 45 yds. Out of Bounds 3 14
Seahawks 5 11 2:30 Punt, Rouen – 41 yds; No return 3 14
Steelers 7 59 :57 Pass, 13yds – Roethlisberger to Wilson, TD 10 14
Seahawks 5 94 :49 48-yd. Brown FG 10 17
Steelers 0 0 :03 Half-time 10 17

THIRD QUARTER

Steelers 6 5 2:12 Punt, Gardocki – 43 yds.; Warrick – 7 yd. return 10 17
Seahawks 4 17 1:24 Punt, Rouen – 44 yds; Touchback 10 17
Steelers 9 80 4:08 Run, 1yd. – Bettis, TD 17 17
Seahawks 8 80 2:14 Run, 12 yds. – Alexander, TD 17 24
Steelers 11 43 3:37 Punt, Gardocki – 37 yds.; Touchback 17 24
Seahawks 2 48 1:11 End of Quarter 17 24

FOURTH QUARTER

Steelers 14 22 7:21 Punt, Gardocki – 42 yds.; Warrick – 10 yd. Return 17 24
Seahawks 6 15 3:32 Interception (Taylor) 17 24
Steelers 3 50 1:35 Pass, 6 yds.- Roethlisberger to Miller, TD 24 24
Seahawks 6 0 1:07 Punt, Rouen – 42 yds.; Randle El – 4 yd. Return 24 24
Steelers 2 15 :18 Interception (Lewis) 24 24
Seahawks 5 36 1:00 27-yd. Brown FG 24 27
Steelers 0 0 :01 Game Over 24 27


SportSims.net, a unique online sports simulation, enables users to compete in franchise football seasons using customized game plans, team management and a state-of-the-art Live Draft. SportSims.net’s Super Bowl prediction is for entertainment only and not for gambling purposes.
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